MA year and a half after the start of the civil war in Sudan, triggered by the “two strongmen” of the country, Commander-in-Chief of the regular army Abdel Fattah al Burhan and leader of the Rapid Support Forces Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the humanitarian situation is now at the brink of irreversible catastrophe. This is especially true for the displaced people in the Darfur region and the refugees in Chad. People are literally dying of hunger, and humanitarian aid is not reaching everyone. Meanwhile, the President and former Vice President of the Sovereign Council, who have been ruling the country since the coup that ousted Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok in October 2021, continue to deny any possibility of peace, even though neither appears capable of winning.
General Burhan, who in recent months has launched an offensive to reclaim territory and has taken control of Omdurman, the twin city of Khartoum on the western bank of the Nile, as well as part of the two-thirds of the Sudanese capital that was in the hands of his rival, did not send a delegation of the Sudanese Armed Forces to the ongoing peace talks in Geneva.
The consequences of the prolonged war are primarily being borne by civilians. The United Nations reported in its latest assessment of the situation in the country that nearly 25 million people—half of Sudan’s population—are in need of assistance, and more than 8 million people have been forced to leave their homes. “Without an immediate cessation of hostilities and substantial deployment of humanitarian assistance, the death toll is likely to rise,” says Yasir Said Arman, former political advisor to Prime Minister Hamdok and president of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement. “Recent data tells us that there are at least 11 million displaced persons, including 3 million forced to flee to Egypt, Libya, Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. Over 20,000 civilians have been killed (data as of the end of 2023), and hundreds of thousands are injured. Infrastructure has been destroyed, and the populations of the states of Khartoum and Gezira, Greater Darfur, and Greater Kordofan are at risk of reaching extreme levels of acute food insecurity and malnutrition during the upcoming lean season starting from April to May.”
The UN Security Council continues to call on the parties to cease hostilities and supports the ongoing peace talks in Geneva. To date, the only concrete result of the negotiations is the opening of humanitarian corridors for the delivery of aid to displaced populations. However, the meetings involving representatives from the United States, the UN, the African Union, IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development, a regional organization of Horn of Africa countries), Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt do not seem set to lead to an end to hostilities. This is partly because currently, only one of the conflicting parties, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), is present at the negotiating table. The Sudanese army has decided to boycott the talks, refusing to recognize the UAE as a mediator, accusing it of supporting the RSF.
“The blatant admission by Ebtisam Al Ketbi (President of the UAE Policy Center), head of the UAE delegation, is clear evidence of the complicity of the UAE in creating the current situation in Sudan. It acknowledges the involvement of the UAE in the war in Sudan as a safeguard for their investments, which is a thinly veiled excuse for active participation in the displacement, killing, and rape of the Sudanese people. The UAE is a criminal partner of the Rapid Support Forces in creating the worst humanitarian crises of our time,” declared Ahmad Fareid Eltayeb, Executive Director of Fikra, a center for studies and development, a member of the European Council on Foreign Relations, and former chief of staff to assistan chief of the Prime Minister of Sudan.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation continues to worsen. The latest estimates indicate at least 6 million people are acutely malnourished, including 3.6 million children under five years old and 1.2 million pregnant or breastfeeding women.
The conflict has caused the destruction of agricultural fields and impeded storage. The FAO has estimated that cereal production in Sudan in 2024 is down 46% compared to the previous year due to fighting in primary crop production areas during the peak harvest season. Food prices in markets have risen by 73% compared to the same period in 2023. Increasingly, families are unable to provide more than one meal a day, and in the displacement camps, people are dying of hunger every day.
